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Calculating Pot Odds


The emergence of a new generation of poker players has once again given rise to the question of whether a player needs to be a strong mathematician in order to be successful in the game.

Players like Howard Lederer are renowned for their ability to calculate the odds of any given situation in just a few seconds, whereas John Stolzmann (who recently became the youngest player to win a WPT bracelet) has often stated that he tends to rely on gut instinct and ‘feel’ rather than science when it comes to deciding whether to play his hand or not.

As with most things in poker, the answer lies somewhere between the two extremes. When deciding whether to call a large bet or not, many things need to be considered … and pot odds are one of the more important things to be taken into account.

Without pot odds, a player has no way of knowing whether a particular bet offers good value. Strong poker players should be continually asking what the odds are of the cards they require being dealt. That way, they can determine whether it’s worth calling a bet.

Let’s say for example that you’re down to the river and you’re holding four cards to a nut flush. In a standard game of Hold’em there would be 46 cards left in the deck (the deck of 52, minus the 2 cards in your hand and the extra four in the middle of the table). Of those 46 cards, only 9 of them will be of use to you (the ones in the same suit as your flush draw).

In other words, the odds of you hitting one of the cards you need is 37-9 or 4.1-1. A poker player relying on percentages would only see this as a good bet if the pot in the middle of the table was greater than 4 times the size of the call he would need to make.

In other words, if you were being asked to call $20 in order to see the river in the above situation, it would only make mathematical sense to do so, if there was more than $80 in the pot to be won.

One of the most common flaws found particularly in new players is that they can often be found chasing straights or flushes. More often than not the bets they place put a large proportion of their chips at risk, for a relatively small reward.

The odds of making your straight on the river is less than 9% or greater than 10-1. With these pot odds, calling a $50 bet in the hope of making your straight draw should only really be considered if there’s a pot worth over $500 to be won. Anything less than that, and the bet is not a good one.

Included below is a table showing the odds on a winning hand being made dependant on the number of outs that are still available to you.

I’d suggest memorising them if you can. Being able to recall exact odds while under pressure the poker table is a very hand skill to have indeed.

Calculating pot odds
After Turn After River
Outs Draw Odds Odds
20 0.48-1 1.30-1
19 0.54-1 1.42-1
18 0.60-1 1.56-1
17 0.67-1 1.71-1
16 0.75-1 1.88-1
15 Straight and Flush 0.85-1 2.07-1
14 0.95-1 2.29-1
13 1.08-1 2.54-1
12 1.22-1 2.83-1
11 1.40-1 3.18-1
10 1.60-1 3.60-1
9 Flush 1.86-1 4.11-1
8 Straight 2.17-1 4.75-1
7 2.60-1 5.57-1
6 3.15-1 6.67-1
5 3.93-1 8.20-1
4 Two Pair 5.06-1 10.50-1
3 7.00-1 14.33-1
2 10.9-1 22-1
1 22.6-1 45-1

Now if you’ve struggled to make it through the last couple of paragraphs and your eyes have started to glaze over, don’t worry. Stick with me for a little while longer as there’s another way of calculating whether you’re making a good bet without having to go through quite as many calculations.

It’s called the Rule of 4 2.